Opening
European equities traded mixed on Thursday, with Paris leading the major bourses as the CAC 40 gained 0.67% to 8,536.4, while Frankfurt lagged with the DAX slipping 0.21% to 25,763.3. The CAC 40's outperformance is the standout move of the session, extending the index's recovery and reinforcing Paris's recent momentum relative to its European peers. A softer euro, down 0.10% against the dollar to 1.1435, provides a modest tailwind for eurozone exporters but warrants close monitoring given its implications for import inflation across the region.
Brent crude rose 1.19% to $72.85, adding modest cost pressure to European energy-intensive industrials and transport stocks, while gold slipped 0.59% to $4,142.80, signalling a slight easing of safe-haven demand that may support risk appetite across eurozone equities.
Key stock move
ASML (AEX) was the sharpest mover across European bourses, falling 5.06% to €1,546.00, extending the pressure on semiconductor-exposed equities amid persistent concerns over export restrictions and softening demand signals from key Asian customers. The Dutch lithography giant's decline weighed heavily on the AEX, overshadowing gains elsewhere including Shell's 3.29% rise to £35.28 and SAP's 2.48% advance to €143.54.
Macro–Equity Bridge
Brent Crude +1.19% at $72.85 → Shell (SHEL.L): higher realised crude prices lift upstream revenue, partially offsetting weak refining environment ASML −5.06% at €1,546 → ASML (ASML.AS): stock-specific selloff drags AEX to underperform CAC by 88bp, semiconductor supply-chain sentiment sours EUR/USD −0.10% at 1.1435 → SAP (SAP.DE), LVMH (MC.PA): marginal dollar tailwind boosts USD-denominated revenue on repatriation at the margin CAC 40 +0.67% vs DAX −0.21% → LVMH (MC.PA), Siemens (SIE.DE): French large-caps outpace German industrials as luxury demand sentiment outweighs manufacturing drag
What to watch today
Brent crude trades at $72.85, keeping pressure on European energy stocks after last week's slide; watch BP and Shell for early directional moves. The euro holds at 1.1435 against the dollar, a level that will sharpen focus on export earnings guidance from German industrials reporting this week. Any ECB commentary on the rate path could test that exchange rate and drive volatility across eurozone sovereign spreads.