Central Bank Intelligence

ECB Rate Watch

European Central Bank policy decisions, rate path, and meeting calendar. Independent analysis for European equity and fixed-income investors.

Deposit Facility Rate
2.00%
Current ECB main rate
Next Meeting
11 June 2026
In 6 days
Expected Move
+25bp
~90% market pricing · equity impact →

Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate
Context
11 Jun 2026
Expected +25bp
2.25%
Inflation re-accelerating; first hike in 14 months
9 Apr 2026
Hold
2.00%
Pause to assess 5× cuts since Sep 2025
5 Mar 2026
−25bp
2.00%
Fifth consecutive cut; neutral rate approached
29 Jan 2026
−25bp
2.25%
Cutting cycle continues as HICP cools toward target
11 Dec 2025
−25bp
2.50%
Growth concerns outweigh residual inflation
23 Oct 2025
−25bp
2.75%
Accelerated pace; energy deflation sets in
11 Sep 2025
−25bp
3.00%
Cutting cycle begins; HICP at 2.1%, growth slowing
12 Jun 2025
+25bp
3.25%
Final hike of 2024–25 tightening cycle
10 Apr 2025
+25bp
3.00%
Hike as wage growth remains elevated above 4%
Source: ECB public data · Boursee Editorial · Informational only, not investment advice

What to Watch — Jun 11

Eurozone HICP
~2.6%
Above 2% target; core services elevated
Wage growth
~4.1%
Slowing but still incompatible with 2% price stability
EUR/USD
1.16+
Stronger euro provides disinflationary impulse
Brent crude
~$95
Energy re-acceleration adds upside risk to HICP
PMI Composite
51.2
Modest expansion; labour market still resilient

2026 Meeting Calendar

11 Jun 2026
Press conference · Rate decision expected
Next
23 Jul 2026
Policy review session
10 Sep 2026
Updated staff projections
22 Oct 2026
Interim meeting
10 Dec 2026
Year-end projections
Rate hike → equity implications
A +25bp hike benefits ING, ABN AMRO, BNP Paribas via NII expansion. Headwind for real estate (Vonovia, Unibail).
Open Macro–Equity Bridge →
General information only under Article 24 MiFID II. Not personalised investment advice. ECB rate expectations are market-derived probabilities, not Boursee forecasts. Source: ECB public data, market pricing. Full disclaimer →